Will "How to Hire a Team" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffCiência1aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 87.1%
Previsores
2
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado31/01/26, 15:45 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsNCAA Football: Team to make College Football Playoffs
PolymarketPro Football: Team to Make Postseason
PolymarketMLB: Team to make postseason
PolymarketRegras
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post How to Hire a Team is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abertos
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 226,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 125,2 mil
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 108,3 mil
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 mais resultados
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "How to Hire a Team" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 87% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will "How to Hire a Team" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?
- Will "How to Hire a Team" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como Will "How to Hire a Team" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.