Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?
One-OffIA1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 87.5%
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94
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado14/05/23, 07:54 UTC2/01/28, 12:30 UTC
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Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.
- I will exercise personal judgement for borderline cases.
- P(doom|something else) is not P(doom).
- He must explicitly specify a number that is less than 97 or that his number is less than 97 for this market to resolve YES.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 88% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? é resolvido?
- Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.