Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 75.8% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040? é resolvido?

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.

Como Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040? é liquidado?

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Phrasing here matters, I will count "P(doom)" in text, and also things like "probability of doom", "P doom", "chance we all die" and other similar-enough things in spoken recorded interviews / podcast appearances /etc. as well as in text.

Use este mercado em código ou em um agente de IA

JSON gratuito deste mercado, sem chave de API:

Agentes de IA: chame pm_data_event no servidor MCP da CoinRithm:

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+12.0pt94%
• December 15,+11.0pt92%
• November 30,+31.0pt90%

+15 mais resultados

Volume total

€ 5,3 mi

Volume 24h

€ 306,1 mil

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027-1.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+1.0pt55.1%
• Google36.7%
• OpenAI-0.7pt5.1%

+12 mais resultados

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+0.7pt89.7%
• Anthropic+0.3pt10.3%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 mais resultados

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.2pt58.5%
• Gemini-0.7pt31.1%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-5.0pt29.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.3pt22.6%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.8pt17.6%

+7 mais resultados

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best AI this week
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?