Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027?
One-OffIA3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.1%
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado15/07/25, 23:27 UTC1/01/27, 23:59 UTC
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In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote:
- My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people’s.
- I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago
- This question will concern any future updates of a similar kind that Gary Marcus may publicly make.
- If he suggests in public that his p(doom) has risen further to some figure at or above 10% before 2027, this market will resolve YES.
- Otherwise the market will resolve NO.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? é resolvido?
- Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will Gary Marcus claim to have a P(doom) of at or higher than 10% at some point before 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: In a July 2025 post titled 'Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically', Gary Marcus wrote: