Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 81.6%
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17
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 9 minutos
1/10/26, 14:56 UTC1/11/26, 06:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Pacific, DeepSeek publicly releases DeepSeek-V4.1-Pro, or any higher Pro/flagship tier that replaces it (e.g. V4.2-Pro, V5, V5-Pro).
- What counts as released: anyone can use it without an invitation, through DeepSeek's API, its official chat app/website, or as publicly downloadable open weights.
- An open public preview or beta counts, the way the "DeepSeek-V4 Preview" (April 24) would have.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, anonymous arena appearances and leaks do not count.
- What does NOT count: Flash, Lite, Mini, vision-experimental or distilled models.
- DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash came out on Sept 10, 2026 and does not count, and neither does any later Flash-tier model.