Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?
GeopolíticaOne-OffChina1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 66.8%
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 minutos
29/03/26, 13:43 UTC31/12/27, 15:59 UTC
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Resolution Criteria:
- This market resolves to YES if, before 2027, reliable media or official sources confirm that vessels belonging to the People's Republic of China (PRC) have physically boarded and inspected a commercial merchant ship en route to Taiwan.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- To resolve YES, ALL of the following conditions must be met:
- The Actor (Who is boarding?): The boarding must be conducted by official PRC state vessels or personnel.
- This includes the China Coast Guard (CCG), the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), or the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA).
