Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?
GeopolíticaOne-OffSpaceChina3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 64.6%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado1/01/26, 06:30 UTC31/12/29, 15:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe USA loses an aircraft carrier anytime til EOY 2028
Manifold MarketsVon der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
PolymarketWill any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by which date?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria
- China currently operates three active aircraft carriers: the Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian.
- This market resolves YES if China officially commissions a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before January 1, 2030.
- "Commissioned" means the carrier is formally accepted into service by the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in an official ceremony.
- Resolution will be verified through official Chinese government announcements, state media (Xinhua, CCTV), or credible international defense reporting (Pentagon reports, USNI, Jane's Defense Weekly).
- Note: The Type 004 will be much larger and also likely the first Chinese surface warship to feature nuclear marine propulsion, so it would not count as a "conventional" carrier for this market.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 65% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria