Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will CALT's Long March 9 rocket launch before 2035??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 64.2% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will CALT's Long March 9 rocket launch before 2035? é resolvido?

Will CALT's Long March 9 rocket launch before 2035? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2035.

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: CALT manufactures the majority of CNSA's Long March family of rockets.

EspaçoOne-Off8a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados

Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 64.2%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 horas

Desatualizado

16/09/23, 19:47 UTC2/01/35, 04:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

CALT manufactures the majority of CNSA's Long March family of rockets.

Long March 9 will be quite similar to Starship / Superheavy and will as of now be powered by engines quite similar to Raptor 2.
The first launch of Long March 9 is scheduled to happen in 2033.
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release.
A scrub won't count as a launch.