Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 20 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? é resolvido?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de janeiro de 2029.

Como Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? é liquidado?

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: To summarize:

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+2.0pt86.1%
• 25 bps increase-1.0pt13.9%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 mais resultados

Volume total

€ 45,7 mi

Volume 24h

€ 1,5 mi

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%98.5%
• Above 0.0%-4.0pt92.5%
• Above 0.1%-1.0pt83%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.3%97.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%

KALSHI

State of the economy at the end of 2026

• Overheating+1.9pt68.2%
• Soft landing-3.9pt27.3%
• Stagflation

KALSHI

US headline CPI inflation in December 2027

• Above 0.0%97%
• Above 0.5%94.5%
• Above 1.0%90.5%

POLYMARKET

October Inflation China - Annual

• 0.9% to 1.0%-14.5pt37.8%
• 0.7% to 0.8%+16.0pt35.7%
• 1.1% to 1.2%-3.0pt15.3%

+2 mais resultados

• Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
• How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
• Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
• U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
• Core CPI in October
• Core CPI in November
• CPI in December
• CPI YoY in December
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
• US economic state at the end of 2026?