Will ballistic missile with range over 500km launched from Ukraine hit any target in Russia in 2026?
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / Ucrânia2m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 56.9%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 minutos
31/07/26, 10:44 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 Moscow Time, a ballistic missile launched from Ukraine hits any target within territory currently controlled by Russia, at the distance greater than 500km from territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Ballistic Missile: The weapon must be classified as a ballistic missile (such as Fire Point's FP-9, or any Sapsan/Hrim-2 variant confirmed to have a range exceeding 500 km).
- Cruise missiles (e.g., Neptunes, Flamingos), rocket-drones (e.g., Palianytsia), and standard kamikaze drones do not qualify.