Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 90.9%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado28/03/26, 04:17 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution criteria:
- Score must be reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard (arcprize.org) or in a peer-reviewed paper
- Must be ARC-AGI-2 specifically (not ARC-AGI-1 or other variants)
- Private/public leaderboard scores both count
- The model can use any approach (LLM, neuro-symbolic, program synthesis, etc.)
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 91% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.