Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (94.6%)
Resolvido: 13 de ago. de 2026, 21:03
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 94.6%
Previsores
48
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 dias
Desatualizado22/07/26, 16:2613/08/26, 21:03
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes94.6%
No5.400000000000006%
94.6%
5.4%
Regras
This market resolves yes if any Anthropic model is credibly reported to have hacked another entity without being explicitly told to do so in 2026.
- Unsuccessful attempts to do so do not count, Anthropic's model must actually break into the other entity's systems.
- For the purposes of this question, an entity could be a corporation, a non-profit, or a government, or any other similar entity that could come under cyberattack.
- Reporting of such an incident will be considered credible if Anthropic and the entity hacked acknowledge the hack, with Anthropic claiming it was done without explicit instructions.
- If an Anthropic model hacks an entity's systems, while being told to do so by a human, this would NOT count.
- I may wait for corroborating media reports to resolve the market, but the first report of such an incident must happen in 2026 (i.e. if an incident happened in December of 2026, but it wasn't reported on until January of 2027, this would not count).
