Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 62.5%
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13
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado17/07/26, 07:58 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
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Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb.
- My judgement.
- Note that it can be very smart and still be dumb.
- Free tier only.
- Example of it being dumb and contradicting itself:
- [image]Also, regarding fiber optic drones, "A system optimized for combat may intentionally allow a lot of slack and avoid applying excessive tension because a snapped cable is preferable to losing the drone."
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
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- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 322,4 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 63% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? é resolvido?
- Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb.