Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76.5%
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20
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 14 minutos
28/03/24, 12:13 UTC1/01/40, 04:59 UTC
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Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.
- I will use my own judgement to decide if AI has started a war.
- If an AI convinces someone to launch a missile or fire a gun and it starts a war this will resolve yes.
- AI spreading misinformation that starts a war will also resolve yes.
- If AI is only used as a tool in war and doesn’t start it it will resolve no.
- If there is no consensus in 2040 the close date will be extended.