Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 76.5%
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20
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado28/03/24, 12:13 UTC1/01/40, 04:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.
- I will use my own judgement to decide if AI has started a war.
- If an AI convinces someone to launch a missile or fire a gun and it starts a war this will resolve yes.
- AI spreading misinformation that starts a war will also resolve yes.
- If AI is only used as a tool in war and doesn’t start it it will resolve no.
- If there is no consensus in 2040 the close date will be extended.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
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- Volume total
- € 22,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 581,3 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
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POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
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- September 18-14.5pt62%
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POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
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- € 55,9 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 96,8 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI start a war before 2040?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI start a war before 2040 é resolvido?
- Will AI start a war before 2040 deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como Will AI start a war before 2040 é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Please be warned the criteria for this are very subjective and may be controversial.