Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
IAOne-OffPolítica dos EUA2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 88.3%
Previsores
39
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado23/05/24, 13:08 UTC31/05/29, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
From https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872, expanded to not refer to Eliezer in particular.
- Resolves to YES if any statement is made or question asked, by anyone participating in a briefing, that clearly refers to AI existential risk, even if other words are used.
- Extinction risk, or any form of 'everyone will die' definitely counts.
- Intent is what matters here.
- Merely catastrophic risk does not count.
- Disrupting the proceedings does not count, unless this causes a participant to also mention it.
