Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 77%
Previsores
175
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado7/05/23, 02:00 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Update 2023-12-06: I appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:
- This only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate.
- If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts.
- I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.
