Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 67%
Previsores
79
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 horas
Desatualizado31/05/24, 23:13 UTC31/12/26, 22:59 UTC
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AGI is achieved when this market resolves and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
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- € 241,3 mil
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- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
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- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
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KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 67% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? é resolvido?
- Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: AGI is achieved when this market resolves and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)