Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Tyler Cowen 100%Líder entre 28 opções
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 horas
Desatualizado27/01/25, 00:54 UTC31/12/30, 21:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Please add answers!
- The term AGI is ambiguous and subjective.
- I want to try to figure out timelines by when prominent people in AI subjectively think we have achieved it.
- Resolution Criteria:
- Each person resolves YES if by EOY 2030, they state publicly that they believe AGI has been achieved.
- This need not refer to any AI system they are working on themselves, but any AI system in the world.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Tyler Cowen em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? é resolvido?
- Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Please add answers!