will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
IAOne-OffTecnologia4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 77.5%
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Desatualizado22/02/25, 06:12 UTC31/12/30, 21:59 UTC
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I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? é resolvido?
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.