Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 68.4%
Previsores
40
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado12/08/25, 00:57 UTC31/12/35, 23:59 UTC
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This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.
- The point of this market is to predict if accessible LLMs will become smarter than expert humans.
- The chosen medium for this test is chess.
- Constraints:
- Human chess player must have a classical ELO of over 2700
- Human does not need to be blindfolded.
Mercados abertos
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 68% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035? é resolvido?
- Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2035.
- Como Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market will resolve if a chess super grandmaster is beaten in a match by a large language model before 2036.