Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 60.1%
Previsores
89
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado19/06/25, 11:34 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster at chess by EOY 2035?
Manifold Markets46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament Winner
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketWhich parties will be in next Swedish Government?
PolymarketRegras
The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess.
- For example, if an LLM can play chess and hold a conversation, it counts.
- However, it cannot make use of a non-LLM based chess engine, or non-LLM related computation, like a calculator or a python script.
- A super grandmaster has a FIDE Elo rating of 2700 or more.
- The super GM must be trying to win the game.
- The game format is unspecified.
Mercados abertos
Sports
KALSHICharaeva vs Kenin
- Alina Charaeva+26.0pt75.8%
- Sofia Kenin-29.0pt24.2%
- Volume total
- € 2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,9 mi
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.7%
- Buffalo10.8%
- San Francisco8.1%
+29 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 113 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,9 mi
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Nflgame 26 SEP 21 Nyglar
- LAR+1.0pt72.8%
- NYG27.2%
- Volume total
- € 1,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,7 mi
POLYMARKETDota 2: Team Nemesis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
+33 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,5 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,5 mi
KALSHIKrejcikova vs Friedsam
- Barbora Krejcikova-8.0pt78%
- Anna-Lena Friedsam+4.0pt22%
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Ludvig Åberg-2.1pt8.7%
- Tommy Fleetwood-0.2pt8.7%
- Matt Fitzpatrick-0.1pt7.8%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- NFL 2026-27: Champion
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Cobra (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
- Ole Miss vs Florida
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage
- MVP Winner?
- England vs Sri Lanka
- Pro Baseball Champion
- College Football National Championship Winner
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Pridankina vs Egorova
- Bouzkova vs Kartal
- Oklahoma St. vs West Virginia: Spread
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 60.1% em 22 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? é resolvido?
- Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The LLM must not be limited to only playing chess.