Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 88.5%
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18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 horas
Desatualizado20/07/26, 00:43 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
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This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.
- The bet was agreed publicly on X on July 18, 2026.
- See my X post describing the bet.
- This market resolves YES if, after the conclusion of the 2026 Fields Medal cycle and on or before December 31, 2030, the International Mathematical Union officially awards at least one Fields Medal to a human mathematician.
- It resolves NO if no human mathematician is awarded a Fields Medal during that period.
- The 2026 Fields Medals are explicitly excluded.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 89% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Will a Fields Medal be awarded to a human mathematician by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This question tracks a $10,000 even-odds bet between me (Tamay Besiroglu) and Christian Szegedy, an AI researcher and founding member of xAI.