Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?
One-OffCiência5aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 94.6%
Previsores
44
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
29/09/23, 00:01 UTC2/01/32, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsMillennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegras
This will resolve YES as soon as the Clay Mathematics Institute makes a definitive indication that a solution is correct, provided that it was published by the end of the day GMT December 31, 2030.
- It will resolve NO at any point after the end of 2030 at which all claimed solutions published before EOD 12/31/2030 have been refuted.
Mercados abertos
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 57,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 86,7 mil
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 153,9 mil
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,6 mi
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 mais resultados
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume total
- € 1,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 5,2 mil
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Volume total
- € 286,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 3,5 mil
- When will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2032.
- Como Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This will resolve YES as soon as the Clay Mathematics Institute makes a definitive indication that a solution is correct, provided that it was published by the end of the day GMT December 31, 2030.