Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomiaTrade PolicyEquitiesGeopolítica3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 95.7%
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32
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado3/04/25, 11:45 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
- Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed.
- However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025.
- Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 96% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? é resolvido?
- Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.