Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
IA3m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Fabiano Caruana 30.7%Líder entre 19 opções
Previsores
37
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado1/12/24, 13:49 UTC31/12/26, 15:59 UTC
Tendências
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the highest-rated chess player at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.
- If two players pass the threshold at the same update, will resolve based on who passed the threshold in live ratings first.
- If there is still a tie, then it will resolve based on which tied player has the higher rating.
- Can resolve as someone currently rated 2800 or above in the event that they dip below 2800 in the official (non live) ratings and then passes it again in a later month.
- Resolution date will be extended as needed.
- Rating source: https://ratings.fide.com/
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)?
- A Manifold Markets cota Fabiano Caruana em 31% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) é resolvido?
- Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800) é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.