Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDeepmind/Google/Alphabet 29%Líder entre 8 opções
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado3/03/24, 16:53 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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This question seeks to identify who will first publicly reveal human-level AGI.
- Timeline: Voting closes at the end of 2029.
- The question may be resolved earlier if a clear winner emerges.
- If human-level AGI is not achieved by 2030, the question will resolve based on who has made the most progress towards the criteria.
- Definitions:
- Human-level AGI: Artificial Intelligence capable of doing almost all human cognitive tasks to a high level (equivalent or better than a median professional in the field).