Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Opus (99%)
Resolvido: 24 de jul. de 2026, 17:03
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Previsão da comunidade atualOpus 99%+7.1ptLíder entre 5 opções
Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 27 dias
Desatualizado3/07/26, 4:3224/07/26, 17:03
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Opus99%
Haiku0.4%
Mythos0.2%
A previously unreleased tier under a new name0.2%
A new checkpoint of Fable or Sonnet with updated version number (e.g. 5.1)0.2%
99%
0.4%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Regras
— The model must be released publicly to qualify, i.e. if Opus 5 gets a limited release (similar to what's been going on with Mythos and GPT-5.6) followed by a GA release of Haiku, the latter will be considered as having been released first.
- — The existing version(s) of Mythos will qualify if released into general access before any other qualifying model.
- — Any 4.x versions, in case Anthropic decides to continue that branch for some reason, will not qualify.
- The most recent release as of this market's creation date is Sonnet 5, which is the third release in the Claude 5 series following Mythos 5 and Fable 5.
