Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualEstonia 18.1%Líder entre 12 opções
Previsores
25
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado9/09/25, 19:31 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRegras
An invasion involves forceful entry of ground troops into an occupied and defended territory.
- Disputes over unoccupied islands, fishing or deep-sea mining rights, etc. don't count.
- Bombing, drones, saboteurs, assassins don't count.
- If the Danish were to trade Greenland to Russia to keep the the named outcome from taking it, that doesn't count.
Mercados abertos
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 470,8 mil
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 mais resultados
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- € 35,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 100,1 mil
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 mais resultados
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Estonia em 18% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: An invasion involves forceful entry of ground troops into an occupied and defended territory.