Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOpenAI 69%+33.3ptLíder entre 5 opções
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+49.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 minutos
5/09/26, 21:51 UTC31/12/34, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of September?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.
- Resolves on Clay Institute announcement or earlier on broad expert consensus that the proof is correct.
- Resolves N/A if no AI-led solution by end of 2034.
- If a claimed solution is under serious review at close, the market will be extended until it's confirmed or rejected.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 322,4 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem??
- A Manifold Markets cota OpenAI em 69% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? é resolvido?
- Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2034.
- Como Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to the company whose AI model is credited with doing the majority of the work in the first solution to any of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems.