Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 10:44 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualCommercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030 30.4%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado6/02/26, 13:52 UTC31/01/30, 23:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Resolution Criteria
- Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise.
- Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.
- Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028.