Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.??

A Manifold Markets cota Not in 2026 em 22.5% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

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When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.?

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Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados

Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 03:59 UTC · política pm-quality-4

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Not in 2026 22.5%

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multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

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Variação 7d

-12.3 pts

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 horas

Desatualizado

10/10/26, 20:17 UTC1/01/27, 06:00 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

@Bayesian resolved @/Bayesian/will-i-solve-an-unsolved-math-probl-5ZR0n0LOlE on Sept. 25, 2026 (earning himself Ṁ19,822) but has not yet revealed what problem(s) he solved.

This market will resolve based on the day he names at least one problem he solved in a comment on that market.
If we reach Jan 1, 2027 without an answer, it will resolve "the named outcome."
Zvi's house rules apply: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ge3Jf5Hnon8wq4xqT/zvi-s-manifold-markets-house-rules

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When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.?

When will Bayesian reveal a math problem he solved in Sept.?

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Mercados abertos

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?