Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
By Dec 31, 2030 98.5%Líder entre 6 opções
By Dec 31, 2030 98.5%Previsores
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
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Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado7/01/25, 04:56 UTC1/01/32, 05:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
