Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%Líder entre 6 opções
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35
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
0.0 pts
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado7/01/25, 04:56 UTC1/01/32, 05:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRegras
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched??
- A Manifold Markets cota By Dec 31, 2030 em 99% em 10 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? é resolvido?
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2032.
- Como When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).