Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 78.1%
Previsores
17
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 42 minutos
10/06/26, 23:05 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
Manifold MarketsWill a top 5 US fast-food chain launch a non-dairy milkshake nationally by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX successfully launches at least one non-SpaceX payload on a Starship mission before January 1, 2030 (UTC).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- For the purposes of this market, the following definitions and rules apply:
- Non-SpaceX Payload: Any active, functional payload—including commercial or government satellites, deep-space probes, space station modules, or scientific instruments—that is owned, operated, or primary-contracted by an entity other than SpaceX (such as NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, a foreign space agency, a university, or a third-party commercial operator).
- Crewed & Lunar Missions:
