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KalshiRegras
This market predicts whether SpaceX will successfully demonstrate in-orbit refueling of a Starship vehicle during calendar year 2026.
- If, during this period, SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship vehicle to another Starship vehicle while both are in Earth orbit, and the transfer is publicly confirmed by SpaceX as a successful propellant transfer, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is SpaceX's official communications (spacex.com, X account @SpaceX, official mission webcasts), supported by NASA and FAA mission reports where applicable.
- A consensus of credible reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion may be used to confirm the demonstration.
- In ambiguous edge cases, resolution will follow the spirit of the question.