When the PRC invades Taiwan will they preemptively attack US, British, Japanese, Kiwi, and/or Australian military/intelligence assets in the region?
GeopolíticaOne-OffChina4a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 58.8%
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Atualizado há 42 minutos
8/08/22, 01:08 UTC15/12/30, 04:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Market will remain open until the PLA invasion has commenced and will resolve YES if the PLA strikes Taiwan's allies preemptively.
- Resolves NO if the Allies strike PLA targets before being hit themselves or if a declaration of war has been formally issued by the government of any party on either side.
- So if the PLA declares war on the Allies and then strikes first it would resolve NO.
- Only preemptive, unannounced precision strikes against high value assets will resolve YES.