Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2026 75.9%Líder entre 5 opções
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
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Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado24/06/25, 20:26 UTC1/01/29, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves to the first year where a model is released that: 1.
- Can be run locally on a reasonable consumer phone 2.
- Has comparable scores on most benchmarks to o3-mini (medium).
- I will judge 2 based on benchmarks like Codeforces scores, AIME math, GPQA-Diamond, etc, but will use discretion if it seems obvious some benchmarks have been compromised and that the AI is clearly inferior to o3-mini.
- It will not need to surpass or match o3-mini's performance on all of these, but it will need to do so on the majority.
- Again, some discretion will be used here.