Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual3.5-4 months 24.9%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
76
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado16/01/26, 20:49 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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This market matches Software Engineering: METR Time Horizon Doubling Time from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the best-fit doubling time for METR-HRS frontier models as of December 31, 2026, computed using the methodology described in the More Info section of the survey (see here).
- If METR releases an updated METR-HRS suite that is a clear successor with comparable difficulty for questions at the same horizon length, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
- Which AI systems count?
