Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual18h - 20h 30.8%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado30/05/26, 18:15 UTC1/11/26, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
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Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 4.8 model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 4.8.x variants count for the purpose of this market. 4.7 or earlier would not count.
- Opus 5 or later would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
