What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
FedWeeklyIATecnologia4aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual80% to 90% 25%Líder entre 7 opções
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado10/06/26, 10:59 UTC31/12/30, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
- If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
- Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
- Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
- How phone and assistant usage counts
- The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota 80% to 90% em 25% em 23 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? é resolvido?
- What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2030.
- Como What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).