"Trojan horse"-like drone attack on US military planes before 2028
GeopolíticaOne-OffRússia / Ucrânia1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 68.8%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado6/06/25, 05:04 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolves YES if there is an attack on US military airplanes parked on a US military base similar to Ukraine's drone attack on Russian strategic bombers before 2028.
- The US military base doesn't have to be in the US.
- Any US military base in other countries (like for example Okinawa or Ramstein bases) count.
- The drones have to be launched from foot or from a vehicle that's either a civilian vehicle (like the truck Ukraine used, but a civilian type boat or even an airplane like a Cessna would be ok).
- The drones have to be launched from within 5km of their targets.
- It doesn't matter for resolution of this question if the attack does any damage.
