Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 82.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado20/11/22, 20:12 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
In April 2022, Eliezer Yudkowsky published Less Wrong post entitled MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy.
- The post declared, in a kidding-not-kidding style, that humanity would not solve the alignment problem, and humanity would soon be extinguished by unfriendly AI.
- This option will resolve as "yes" if Scott Alexander publishes a post in a similar vein, namely
- The post declares that humanity is doomed, and that doom will be coming quickly
- The post is written either earnestly, or it is written in a style that leaves the reader uncomfortably unsure if Alexander is earnest.
- Themes of doom and futility should be a central conciet of the post.
