Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
EsportesOne-OffReligionSociety & CultureChess3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 90.3%
Previsores
109
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado18/06/23, 03:15 UTC1/01/30, 05:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander be accused of a felony in a mainstream news outlet before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander (psychiatrist and writer) be arrested before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism.
- This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).