Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
EsportesOne-OffReligiãoSociedade e culturaXadrez3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.5%
Previsores
111
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado18/06/23, 03:15 UTC1/01/30, 05:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Usha Vance convert to Christianity before the election?
Manifold MarketsDid Jeffrey Epstein kill himself?
Manifold MarketsWill I be vegan for the remainder of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism.
- This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
