Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
EsportesOne-OffReligiãoSociedade e culturaXadrez3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 18:23 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 89.5%
Não 89.5%Previsores
111
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 minutos
18/06/23, 03:15 UTC1/01/30, 05:00 UTC
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There seems to be a small but significant trend of people from the Rationalist movement eventually converting to Christianity, despite how diametrically opposed their previous beliefs seemed to any sort of religious fideism.
- This market will resolve as YES if at any time before January 1st, 2030, Scott Alexander publicly announces conversion to self-identified Christianity (i.e. even if it's a sect like JW or Mormonism where some people doubt if they're "real Christians," if he identifies as Christian, it counts).
