Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualJoe Rogan 45.4%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado1/04/26, 00:20 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
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KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for each person if they publicly identify as Christian or convert to Christianity before January 1, 2030.
- Conversion requires either: (1) explicit public statement of Christian faith and belief in Jesus Christ as savior, or (2) formal baptism/confirmation into a Christian denomination.
- Identifying as "cultural Christian" or expressing admiration for Christian teachings without affirming core Christian doctrine does not constitute conversion.
- Resolution sources include public interviews, social media statements, official church records, and credible news reporting.
- the named outcome has recently attended church services on a consistent basis, though he has never professed to be a Christian.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]?
- A Manifold Markets cota Joe Rogan em 45% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] é resolvido?
- Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria