Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 23 de jul. de 2026, 16:00 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Previsão da comunidade atualMay 31 0%Líder entre 4 opções
Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado anteontem
Desatualizado16/05/26, 16:1431/12/26, 23:59
Tendências
0%
0%
Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro
Resultado escolhido
October 3114%
Comparar plataformas· December 31
Classificado por qualidade de mercado, depois liquidez e volume de 24h| Plataforma | Qualidade | Probabilidade | vs. referência | Volume 24h | Liquidez | Atualização | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMelhor no geral88% de correspondência · verificado | Alta | 36% | — | 37,4 mil € | 208,8 mil € | há 18 minutos | Abrir → |
| Polymarket88% de correspondência · auto | Média | 25% | — | 4,7 mil € | 124,5 mil € | há 18 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 21% | — | — | — | anteontem |
Também disponível em Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5%5m
25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 mais resultados
73 • Qualidade médiaSpread amploAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total797,3 mil €
Volume 24h4,7 mil €
POLYMARKETTambém disponível em Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
3.5%5m
-0.5%36%
-3.5%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 mais resultados
89 • Alta qualidadeSpread moderadoAlta liquidezAlta ambiguidade
Volume total5 M €
Volume 24h37,4 mil €
POLYMARKETRegras
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Os dados de comparação são apenas informativos. Preços e liquidez podem variar.
Grandes negociações
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinkahá 3 dias
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinkahá 3 dias$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3há 21 dias
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius3há 21 dias$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedstahá 26 dias
POLYMARKETNonedstahá 26 diasTendência de volume
$6018 de jul.4d de dados23 de jul.
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.