Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.2%
Previsores
85
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
14/12/25, 17:18 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Resolution criteria
- A ceasefire will resolve YES if a formal agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities is reached and takes effect at any point during 2026.
- The ceasefire must involve a cessation of military operations along the entire front line, not partial or temporary truces.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the ceasefire has commenced.
- If no such agreement is reached by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
- Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president, with Trump's administration broadly agreeing with Russian proposals for ending the war.
