Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualQwen 4 (or any Qwen model) 98.3%+3.3ptLíder entre 26 opções
Previsores
63
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+48.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 minutos
31/10/26, 23:01 UTC1/12/26, 00:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has #1 AI model end of January? (Style Control On)
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?
PolymarketWhich companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
KalshiTop AI model this month
KalshiRegras
This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during November 2026 (UTC).
- What counts as a release A model is released on the first day any member of the public in the U.S. can use it through an official channel without an invite: a self-serve API key, the lab’s web or app interface, or a download.
- Paid plans count if anyone can sign up.
- These do not count: waitlists, allowlists, trusted-tester programs, partner-only, enterprise-only or sector-limited access (for example, cyber-defender-only programs), and announcements or benchmark posts on their own.
- Models that are available only in the U.S. (e.g. Claude Fable 5) still count as widely available.
- What counts as a model (scope) Only general-purpose language and multimodal reasoning models count.