Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 09:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 81.1%
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14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado6/03/26, 01:01 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Inspiration: https://xcancel.com/ajeya_cotra/status/2029576934523556256#m
- Will a model released this year (2026) be evaluated by METR to have a 50% time horizon of over 100 hours within 6 months of its release?
- Resolves using their most up-to-date methodology at the time (currently the 1.1 time horizon).
- I will tend to try and resolve to the spirit of the question in edge cases, rather than its letter, but I'm happy to take questions and try to provide clarifications in advance.