Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual32-64 Hours 43.2%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado20/12/25, 13:36 UTC1/01/27, 13:33 UTC
Tendências
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The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.
- If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A. Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.