Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual32-64 Hours 51.5%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado20/12/25, 13:36 UTC1/01/27, 13:33 UTC
Tendências
0.4%
0.4%
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The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.
- If METR decides to stop publishing the benchmark or there is some other problem, I will mark as N/A. Update 2026-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the METR time horizon estimate breaks down or is ambiguous/unknown, the market will resolve to the best point estimate even if the confidence interval is wide.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027??
- A Manifold Markets cota 32-64 Hours em 52% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027? é resolvido?
- What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The naive extrapolation from the original paper would be around 8 hours.