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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado5/01/26, 23:28 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Referring to this comment by Nikola Jurkovic:
- I very roughly polled METR staff (using Fatebook) what the 50% time horizon will be by EOY 2026, conditional on METR reporting something analogous to today's time horizon metric.
- I got the following results: 29% average probability that it will surpass 32 hours. 68% average probability that it will surpass 16 hours.
- The first question got 10 respondents and the second question got 12.
- Around half of the respondents were technical researchers.
- I expect the sample to be close to representative, but maybe a bit more short-timelines than the rest of METR staff.
