Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual![[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FStopPunting%2FllgClN6RgS.jpg&w=64&q=80)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%Líder entre 113 opções
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%) 100%Previsores
191
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado28/01/25, 17:01 UTC2/02/29, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsTrump's Second Term: Will Manifold out-predict Nate Silver?
Manifold MarketsWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill any Manifold user be imprisoned in CECOT or a similar prison after deportation from the US during Trump's 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsRepublicans favored to win the Senate on Nate Silver's Bulletin by which date?
PolymarketCATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.
- I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true) Also See:
- @/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca
